By James C. Poindexter
The pundits would have you believe that President Obama is feeling very uncomfortable about his chances of reelection in 2012. If you look at historical analysis of Presidents facing reelection during similar economic climates, he might have reason to. But if you take a dive into the electoral numbers that truly determine the Presidential election, Mitt Romney (the likely GOP nominee) has a long battle ahead of him.
The vast majority of states are already decided. Texas and Oklahoma will inevitably go for the GOP candidate, while states such as California, New York, and Massachusetts will undoubtedly go blue in 2012. With these political realities calculated, the electoral college divides to about 201 votes for Obama in the bag, and 191 going to the GOP nominee by default (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)
The magic number in the electoral college is 270 electoral votes to ensure victory. So, just as in past elections, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will determine this election. These are the states that are up for grabs this season with the highest number of electoral votes. Historically, these states have swung our presidential election for the past several cycles.
Each of these states might seem as distinct from the others as states can possibly be, except for one thing they all have in common. Each of these four states elected a tea party supported governor in 2010, and each of these governors are polling lower than President Obama. Much lower.
With 2012 right around the corner, not a day goes by that you do not here of Gov. Kasich (OH), Scott (FL), Walker (MI) and Corbett (PA) in the news, working hard to strip state benefits for public employees. In Michigan, a recall election has rallied both Union and liberal support for Democratic candidates in ways that the Obama campaign could have never done on their own. Ohio voters are heading to the polls tomorrow to decide if Kasich’s anti-union laws will stay in place. (Current polling shows support for the laws at around 20%)
Similarly, in Florida, Rick Scott has come under immense fire for his lack of job creation. Solantic, a company that he owned prior to being elected Governor, decided last week to leave the state of Florida, laying off their workforce. In Pennsylvania, Governor Corbett is experiencing equally low approval ratings after letting down PA voters on job creation promises as well.
So what does all of this mean for President Obama? None of these candidates will be on the ballot in 2012, which means that they will continue to sour their constituents for another two years after the President election. But with few defending them, it is likely that Democratic voters will coalesce around their candidates in opposition of their tea-party Governors’ policies. The polarizing effect that the Tea Party platform has on Democrats (founded or not, I’ll leave that up top you to decide) cannot be ignored. And liberals across these swing states are furious at their state leaders for what they are doing to state employees, public goods, and education.
In 2012, these Governors are Obama’s secret weapon. His campaign, if they are smart, will put these candidates on the ballot in the form of whoever the GOP nominee is. And if done effectively, will usher in four more years for President Obama.
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