More and more, Republicans are turning away from their party’s current field of candidates and their dangerous rhetoric, but with no place to go. Altogether, the Republicans deflecting only constitute a minority of conservatives in the United States, but it only takes a few to ruin the Republican party’s chances of unseating the very vulnerable President Obama in the fall.
As the cycling of potential contenders has scraped the bottom of the barrel, there seems to be no viable candidate ready to give Barack Obama a challenge in the fall. Each candidate has had their opportunity to take the lead in this primary, and each have failed to form a message that can capture the interest of both tea party and neo-conservatives alike. Each of these extremes make up a sizable portion of the party, yet no one has been capable of finding a way to unite the two poles.
This is not to say that these neo-conservatives will vote for Obama in 2012 (although some certainly will), but it is hard to see the GOP mustering enough energy to beat the incumbent President Obama if they only have half of their base excited for their candidate. Should Gingrich get the nod, these institutionalist Republicans will likely stay home on election day out of sheer frustration over the direction of their party.
Similarly, if Romney takes the party’s nomination, it is likely that the tea-party will rationalize taking four more years of Barack Obama and then facing an open election with Chris Christie or Jeb Bush at the helm in 2016, than have to defend Romney for eight years. Whoever gets this nomination, it is clear that they will have a lot of work to do before general election day.
While the conservatives are pandering to the right wing of the Republican Party, President Obama has been able to position himself in the middle. He is already running against Romney and Gingrich, but without the need to pander to his Democratic base, the President has the unique opportunity that only incumbents enjoy of pandering to the middle.
We need not look too far back in history to find a comparable election season. In 2004, John Kerry faced a tough election. He was considered a moderate and a flip-flopper (much like Romney) heading into the primary against Howard Dean (the former party chairman and liberal stalwart). Bush’s approval ratings at the time of election day were in the low 30% and it seemed that the Democrats could beat him with any candidate.
But John Kerry’s weak political knowledge and inability to bring independents and moderates to his base was thwarted by Bush’s early campaigning from the middle. This year, the incumbent has a much higher approval rating, the economy is showing signs of improvement, and the Republicans are more divided over the direction of their party than the 2004 Democrats were. Not to call it early for the President, but all conventional wisdom points toward a tough uphill battle for whoever the GOP candidate will be.
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